Oscar Predictions

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Here are my predictions for Sunday’s Oscars, along with a few alternates in each category plus some general thoughts. I’ve refrained from posting any predictions for the Best Foreign Film category because of how wildly unpredictable it is. Amelie lost, Pan’s Labyrinth lost, and the 3 frontrunners this year weren’t even nominated. Everyone, even the academy, is confused about it. But without further ado, here are my Oscar predictions:

Best Picture:

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1) No Country for Old Men

2) There Will Be Blood

3) Juno

No Country’s definitely the frontrunner, but still, something doesn’t feel right. I hope Blood will make an upset, but it’s pretty unlikely, especially considering it took in the smallest amount at the box office. Juno and Michael Clayton also have a shot, but Atonement is completely out of the running.

Best Director:

1) Joel & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men

2) Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

3) Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood

Here I’d love to see Julian Schnabel win. He won the Golden Globe and he’s got a decent chance at the Oscar, but the Coens are still my pick. PTA has a shot, but I highly doubt he wins it. The other nominees, Jason Reitman for Juno and Tony Gilroy for Michael Clayton, don’t have a chance.

Best Female Actor:

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1) Julie Christie – Away From Her

2) Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose

3) Ellen Page – Juno

Though I’m rooting for Marion Cotillard, I’m fairly certain this is Christie’s year. She’s the clear frontrunner (she’s won most of the major awards, including the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild Award). Ellen Page is in the race, but Cate Blanchett and Laura Linney are out.

Best Male Actor:

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1) Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood

-If anybody else wins something’s seriously fucked up. All the other nominees are telling the academy to vote for him, he’s won every possible award up to this point, he’s been very humble during his acceptance speeches and his few interviews, and of course his performance was freaking incredible.

Best Original Screenplay:

1) Diablo Cody – Juno

2) Tony Gilroy – Michael Clayton

-This should easily go to Diablo Cody. The other nominated films (except for Michael Clayton)- Ratatouille, The Savages, and Lars and the Real Girl– have little to no chance.

Best Adapted Screenplay:

1) Joel & Ethan Coen – No Country for Old Men

2) Paul Thomas Anderson – There Will Be Blood

3) Ronald Harwood – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

-This will be a battle between PTA and the Coens. I’m predicting the Coens to win, but I really think it should go to PTA for There Will Be Blood. We’ll see.

Best Female Supporting Actor:

-This one’s wide open. All 5 nominees have a good chance. Blanchett won the Globe, Rudy Dee won the SAG, Tilda Swinton won the BAFTA, and Amy Ryan won most of the the critics awards. It’s basically a toss-up, but here are my guesses:

1) Cate Blanchett – I’m Not There

2) Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton

3) Amy Ryan/Ruby Dee/Saoirse Ronan

Best Male Supporting Actor:

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1) Javier Bardem – No Country for Old Men

-I’d put all my money on Bardem.

Best Original Score:

1) Dario Marianelli – Atonement

-The scores for Ratatouille, The Kite Runner, and Yuma could win, but I think this rightfully goes to Atonement. It was an incredible score and I’d be pretty surprised to see it not win.

Best Animated Feature:

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1) Ratatouille

2) Persepolis

-Ratatouille’s all over this one. Persepolis could upset, but it’s not likely. 3rd nominee Surf’s Up is lucky it was even nominated.

Best Cinematography:

1) Robert Elswit – There Will Be Blood

2) Roger Deakins – The Assassination of Jesse James/No Country for Old Men

There Will Be Blood will most likely take this one due to double nominee Roger Deakins splitting the vote. Otherwise, I’d say Jesse James, which probably deserves the award more. It was a pretty incredible year for cinematography, so anything could upset.

Best Documentary:

1) Sicko

-Michael Moore won for Bowling for Columbine and would’ve won for Fahrenheit 9/11 had it been eligible, and since Sicko is just as praised and popular but slightly less controversial, I’d say it’s a lock.

And there we are, predictions in the 12 major categories. I’m actually hoping that my predictions turn out to be almost completely wrong other than the male acting awards, since I’m rooting for an underdog in almost every category.

Remember, the Oscars are this Sunday, the 22nd.

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11 responses to “Oscar Predictions

  • reneeabaker

    ABOUT: Your Oscar Picks—
    I agree with you on Cate Blanchett, and there should be an Oscar for Vanessa Redgrave. But a “NO” from me on George Clooney (He can’t act). Read more:
    About Renee Ashley Baker (On WordPress) at:
    http://reneeashleybaker.wordpress.com

  • robfunk

    You were pretty spot on – well done.

  • lkorn

    Throw up a Oscar Winner thread, Evan… (“Throw up” may have not been the best phrase, yeah?)

    Marion Cotillard, huh, Academy? I didn’t see it. Did you guys? And Sicko didn’t win, which was, in a way, not surprising. Michael Moore’s very well known, but I don’t think U.S. health care was deep enough for the Academy, which, if the Academy is any indication of widespread opinion, may say something about why it (U.S. health care) is as shotty as it is.

    Anyway, four hours later, no HUGE upsets. I’m glad Juno came out with something, too. I was looking to Persepolis for a “WHOA!”, but Ratatouille took Best Animated, which is understandable and supported by me.

    Jon Stewart did an okay job. He lost me at the end…

    The Coen Bros. were a strange combination of hidden humor and seriousness, which resulted in scattered chuckles, but more overall confusion — Pretty reminiscent of their style, I think; they’re pretty funky (is “funky” an okay adjective to describe them?)

    Daniel Day Lewis is quite the articulate man.

    The tribute to the industry’s recently passed was obviously emphasized because of Ledger’s death, but I thought there might be something a bit more exclusive to his life. I can’t say I was or was not disappointed by the brief spot at the end of the montage.

    Best montage (in all seriousness): 79 years of best films — That was pretty cool to see the films preceding the 80th, yeah? (Although I enjoyed the bad dreams, too…)

    Ok, yeah… My thoughts.

  • robfunk

    I only saw up to Best Actress before I had to go to work, but what I saw was good, and I kept track of things via the web.

    Way to go Lewis!!!

  • mangold

    i went 9 for 12. the only prediction i really regret was for documentary. the more i think about it, i knew nothing about anything in that category and shouldn’t have even tried to offer any insight.

    i’m SO happy marion cotillard won. definitely a surprise, but she really deserved it. one of my favorite performances ever.

    i think “funky” is a perfect word to describe the coens. i thought they were great, especially ethan, the man of few words.

    and day-lewis’ speech was wonderful, of course. he’s so humble and modest, and it’s great to hear the difference between his voice and that of daniel plainview’s.

    i give jon stewart thumbs up. way better than whoopi, or steve martin, imo.

    so yeah, not too many surprises. i’m happy with the winners, and again am really really happy cotillard won. cool stuff.

  • mangold

    oh, and i’m also really happy glen hansard and marketa irglova won best song for once. and bourne ultimatum for editing.

  • lkorn

    I didn’t see The Bourne Ultimatum, but it sure took it’s fair share of technical awards.

    And I, too, was pretty stoked to see “Falling Slowly” win — Completely deserved to win.

  • mangold

    ahh, i was too lazy to post the winners last night and now there doesn’t seem to be much point. oh well.

  • lkorn

    Got ya covered, in just as lazy a style.

  • lkorn

    Yeah — Never mind.

  • lkorn

    “Elliott Smith lost to Celine Dion’s Titanic schlock “My Heart Will Go On”, and Aimee Mann lost to Phil Collins’ Tarzan boilerplate “You’ll Be In My Heart”, but sometimes the good guys do win at the Academy Awards.”

    http://www.pitchforkmedia.com/article/feature/48987-interview-glen-hansard-and-markta-irglov

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