Polling meets The Oscars

This is pretty cool:

Fivethirtyeight– the polling-based blog and website, which predicted the 2008 election perfectly (I think it got Missouri wrong or just had it as a “toss-up”), has posted its predictions for The Oscars. The website used “a database of the last thirty years of Oscar history to predict the recipient’s of this Sunday’s Academy Awards.”

The predictions?

Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight (86% chance of victory)
Best Supporting Actress:Taraji P. Henson, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (51% chance of victory)
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler (71% chance of victory)
Best Actress:Kate Winslet, The Reader (68% chance of victory)
Best Director: Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire (99.7% chance of victory)
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire (99.0% chance of victory)


3 responses to “Polling meets The Oscars

  • sdennison

    Interesting…while I wouldn’t be all that surprised if Rourke won, I will be blown away if Henson takes the Oscar for a decidedly unimpressive performance. At least the odds are barely over 50% for her.

  • bob

    The brain behind fivethirtyeight… what’s his name? Damn. Well, he was on Olbermann last night. Very funny. I worship the man, but he’s a bit akward. Anyway, when Olbermann asked him if he’d seen any of the movie before he made his prediction the answer was “no.” Which I just loved.
    If you go to the site you can see what % chance he gives to each nominee.

  • Bob

    5 out of 6 ain’t bad.

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